Chance of Taiwan, China Reunification is ‘Nil’ – What Happens Next?
52,562
Published 2024-06-26
There's no solution to the situations in Taiwan and Gaza, says former Singapore diplomat Bilahari Kausikan.
by Hope Kahn, National Press Foundation
Most international issues have no solutions, but they can be managed, says Bilahari Kausikan, the former Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore.
“That’s good news for diplomats and journalists because it means we’ll never be out of a job,” he told NPF International Trade Journalism Fellows.
Taiwan and Gaza fall into this category of management as the best-case scenario, Kausikan said.
The prospect of Taiwan joining China is “nil,” Kausikan said.
“Why would the Taiwanese want to voluntarily reunify? There’s no support for the two extremes of unilateral independence or reunification. Most people want the status quo to remain and I think the status quo can be maintained.”
But while Kausikan criticized China’s leader Xi Jinping as “mediocre at governance,” he does not anticipate war.
“Whatever you may think of the Chinese leadership, they’re not gamblers, and they’re not going to roll the dice with the most important thing to them which is the continuation of party rule. … If there is a risk, it’s going to be conflict by accident, by miscalculation – not war by design.”
There are two scenarios where the Chinese must fight, he said. “The first is a very low probability, high impact scenario, which is if Taiwan revives its nuclear weapon ambitions … the higher probability scenario is if Taiwanese domestic politics takes some strange turn.”
Kausikan says that a lot of international relations and diplomacy consists of keeping myths credibly alive so people don’t take drastic actions — which is true in both Taiwan and Gaza, he said, “which gives you something to write about.”
Gaza has been “ill managed for quite a long time,” Kausikan said.
While a two-state solution is favored by many nations, “I have not seen anybody come up with a viable pathway to a two-state solution,” Kausikan said, predicting that the conflict will remain subregional and not spread. After “mistakes” in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. is “offshore balancing” with Gaza, Kausikan said.
“You have these demonstrations about Gaza at the universities, but the demonstrations over the Vietnam War were far worse. Why? Because Americans were dying.”
Speaker: Bilahari Kausikan, Former Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
Transcript, summary and resources: nationalpress.org/topic/bilahari-kausikan-taiwan-g…
This fellowship is part of an ongoing program of journalism training and awards for trade coverage sponsored by the Hinrich Foundation.
This video was produced within the Evelyn Y. Davis studios. NPF is solely responsible for the content.
All Comments (21)
-
This guy once suggested that Cambodia and Laos be expelled from ASEAN for being too close to China. He is a nut case. Even the US wouldn't suggest this. 😂
-
Its better to listen to George Yeo's views. Kausikuan in Chinese means sheet stirrer.
-
US's lackey. 😂😂😂. He doesn't knows China loans and help. Where USA only wars or colonise other countries.
-
😍:washhands::washhands::washhands:always love Bilahari's candor and clear-eyed analyses and insights
-
Wow well diversified viewpoints unlike the usual pro motherland talk from Singaporeans even Indian Singaporeans. He makes very good points about NOT being wholly vested in other countries power struggles. Apparently, Singapore took his advice to stay neutral and not join BRICS. Some ASEAN countries need money and development badly so they get caught up in this game. Singapore perhaps could step up to invest in ASEAN without the debt diplomacy issue and keep the peace and no WARS. ASEAN needs more Diplomats like him who are straight forward in offering observations and opinions based on his knowledge in the diplomatic corps and governmental circles. There are plenty of well aware ASEAN folks who simply look the other way. Glad to see and hear his take on ASEAN affairs and keeping eyes wide open on all the happenings in the world of geopolitics. Of course there is the MASTER, Dr. Jaishankar whose diplomatic observances of duplicitous behaviour of the WEST and CNY is nothing short of brilliant, in unpacking decades of lies!
-
Management of 1.4 billion in housing, infrastructure, food, heathcare, education, jobs - mediocre? Arrogant.
-
We live in the cusp of life changing dynamics and power play in the Asia Pacific and pan Asian affairs.
-
Frank and very well-presented.
-
he has no ideas what he was talking about.
-
In an after thought, it’s not surprising for many people to think that this Bilahari guy is some well paid U.S. agent in an anti China crusade or acting on behalf of U.S. interests in the ASEAN region by suggesting for more U.S. influence & involvement with these ASEAN countries over that of China which is establishing more economic & cooperative relationships with ASEAN members , in direct contrast to the U.S. position which link its relations with military alliances , aiming mainly at one nation , China.! Many of the ASEAN countries , with exception of the PH, have realized that the U.S. relations are rather counterproductive to their national interests & had indirectly , refrained from any military involvement with the U.S. in its drive to contain China , by using ASEAN as the cannon fodders, should regional conflicts escalate with U.S. design. As the Indonesian Pres. Prabowo once reiterated on his U.S. policy that the “ U.S. enemies are theirs alone , Not ours “! I believe that the Malaysian PM , Anwar did take a similar position on his U.S. policy. These ASEAN leaders have taken their pragmatic approach on their country’s relations with China which have become more productive on national & regional terms than with the U.S. policy of war & destruction as evidenced in its American exceptionalism.! Surely, SG won’t want to be on the outside looking in , among the ASEAN group.!
-
China PRC read: ‘Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.’ - Napoleon Bonaparte
-
Most honest analysis, like his straight shooter stance, no beating around the bush.... Funny all the noises the moment he spoke truth about winnie-the pooh as seem PRC can do no wrong But no noises when he say anything negative about the US
-
He is of indian origin (ah san) no surprise for being anti-China.
-
Kishore always siding China
-
South China Sea issue has to be solved by ASEAN! SCS has been an international water! Nothing to do with PRC!! The 9 dot lines were not drawn by the CCP in the first place! If CCP accepts ROC’s position in SCC, then CCP has to accept ROC as its country!!!
-
The US is continuing with its strategy to keep Asia poor and divided. This policy was articulated in the top-secret U.S. Foreign Policy written 76 years ago. February 24, 1948, Declassified U.S. Foreign Policy: Furthermore, we have about 50% of the world’s wealth but only 6.3% of its population. This disparity is particularly great as between ourselves and the peoples of Asia. In this situation, we cannot fail to be the object of envy and resentment. Our real task in the coming period is to devise a pattern of relationships which will permit us to maintain this position of disparity without positive detriment to our national security. ... that Japan and the Philippines will be found to be the corner-stones of such a Pacific security system and that if we can contrive to retain effective control over these areas there can be no serious threat to our security from the East within our time. Taiwan was added to the Pacific security system after Chiang's army retreated to the island of Taiwan in 1949. South Korea was added after the Korean War in 1953. The attempt with Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia was abandoned in 1975. The 1989 attempt in China failed. The 2019-2020 attempt in Hong Kong also failed. Anywhere in the world, if there is a border dispute, it is usually the result of a line drawn by an Englishman; if it is an internal dispute, it is usually the US fueling it. Difference in implementation of divide and conquer strategy. The 'Arsenal of Democracy' produces 40 percent of the world's weapons. It is a very profitable business model in which other countries buy these weapons to fight each other. The key is maximizing profits without shedding US blood by inducing conflicts between and within countries outside the USA. One client is eager to spend AUD 368 billion to buy a few high-quality used nuclear-powered submarines. This business model's critical components are NATO, QUAD, ANZUS, Five Eyes, AUKUS, and MCC (Mutual Cross-Service Agreement). The US makes the rules, and the US and their friends do not have to follow them. Since WWII, the United States has started 201 wars, overthrew 36 foreign leaders, killed or attempted to kill 50, dropped bombs in 30 countries, and interfered in 86 foreign elections. To make the world safe for democracy, the US has caused the deaths of tens of millions of people in its conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The CIA was involved in covert operations that resulted in mass killings of communists in over 22 countries, 500,000 to 2,000,000 Indonesian civilians disappeared in 1965-1966.
-
This controversial video surely will not go well with CCP propagandists 😂
-
A lot of what he says is NOT what we want to hear, but if we're honest with ourselves, he's not always wrong when we want to disagree with him.
-
He states his views clearly. Not all will agree with him. That’s normal.
-
Why are people dissing him? Things he said reflect ground reality and Singapore position more accurately than Kishore or George Yeo. Foreign interference, SCS dispute, Aukus, Ukraine war, Israel–Hamas conflict....
