Bond Bear Market on the Horizon [2023]
33,696
Published 2023-11-11
James Grant, Founder and Editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, joins us to discuss the history of bond market cycles and why the dramatic rise in interest rates that began in March of last year might have ushered in a prolonged bear market in bonds.
Grant argues that bond yields have trended in generation-length periods, with each cycle lasting at least 20 years. He believes that the bull market in bonds that began in the early 1980s has now come to an end, and that we are now embarking on a long-term period of rising interest rates.
Grant's perspective is important because he has been warning of a bond bear market for many years. He has argued that the central banks' aggressive monetary stimulus policies have created a bubble in the bond market and that this bubble is now bursting.
#bondmarket #bearmarket #investingstrategy #interestrates #centralbanking #monetarysystem
WEALTHTRACK episode 2020 originally broadcast on November 10, 2023,
More info:wealthtrack.com/financial-thought-leader-james-gra…
Bookshelf:
The Forgotten Depression: 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself
amzn.to/3QTCsh9
Money of the Mind: How the 1980s Got That Way
amzn.to/47tIeev
The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings
amzn.to/3ugSwjR
Bagehot: The Life and Times of the Greatest Victorian
amzn.to/47cX49S
Inside the Yield Book: The Classic That Created the Science of Bond Analysis
amzn.to/47lO3KY
A History of Interest Rates, Fourth Edition
amzn.to/3FR38J1
All Comments (21)
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Well for the first time in many, many years Jim Grant has an interest rate to observe.
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i does seem a good time for small caps which soared a week ago after last CPI reading. Mr. Jim Grant is just amazing as usual
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JG is always a great interview! Thanks!
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That was fantastic! Love Jim Grant❤
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James Grant is the Robert Crumb of investment commentary.
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He's always interesting. Thanks.
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Great Channel IMO please allocate more time to fear and doubt orientated content & guests so that this will motivate sellers to complete their good work and asset price will be on bargain prices again
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The solution to higher rates is simple. I’m getting out my WIN button and will be wearing it every day until inflation comes down to 2%. Thank you President Ford.
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"Shinplasters" were paper currency valued at 25 cents. Hitherto coinages were tied to the amount of copper in a penny or silver dollar.
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So two weeks ago bond market update with Mary Ellen Stanek it was the case for "Why Bonds are back" I'm confused? Maybe its just past my bedtime. Long, Longtime fan of Consuelo & James Grant. Cash remains king perhaps.
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I love how these videos seem like they were filmed by PBS in the 90’s. Good content though
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“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’” - The Theory of Money and Credit by Ludwig von Mises
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sound seems soft on this vid
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There is a nice tailwind if the dollar goes lower. Foreign investment would likely come back to some extent in longer dated treasuries. It could soak up some level of the offerings. Right now those buyers have been largely out and on par have made the current situation worse than it would have been. If demand is increased, no need to keep pumping rates even higher. The treasury should have rolled the maturities into the long end of the curve when they could have!! Now, at the moment, they are really trapped. I cant see them “allowing” the maturities to be rolled over into the longs at the current rates bankrupting the US. Something will happen (to make something give!). The puzzle pieces will come together miraculously.
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National debt is still increasing. It's only becoming less favorable.
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He spoke of Volker and 70s inflation.The amount of the debt was a way much lower than now .The old economist tends to go into this argument with their vivid memory .33 trillion of the debts (122% of GDP)can not simply bear much higher level of the rate .The delinquency of the credit card and auto loans are growing quite rapidly.He speaks of historical trends etc. The Japanese debt is 260% of GDP .Despite of the recent statement of the central banker of BOJ,the rates have not gone up much .There is not much power to observe the higher rate.I followed and invested in his idea of PHIX ETF back in 2021 and am thankful to his idea then .2X of money after two years and took profits . Since October this year ,I have been buying 20 year plus treasuries ETF . I can not agree with his opinion this time .
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Nothing actionable here. I love folks like Grant & Jim Rogers. They talk & talk. But we don't learn a great deal.
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So, as long as one is young enough, and lucky enough not to need to sell before maturity, we can do OK... Seems like the viable propositional set keeps shrinking...
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Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank as subscriber 😊
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We've had QE and QT and now I predict we'll soon have QF...Quantitative Forgiveness. Each year the Fed will simply write off a chunk of the Treasury Bonds it holds. A simple application of MMT. That will allow long rates to stay higher. Savers and foreign investors will get a better yield and not dump Treasuries. It will allow the US government to run high deficits without getting overwhelmed with debt and interest costs. When you can't pay then you won't!
