Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war | DW Analysis
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Published 2022-12-29
China's President Xi Jinping has vowed that Beijing will "reunify" with the island – if necessary, by force. A large majority of people in Taiwan say they don't want reunification. The United States is increasingly clear that it would intervene to defend Taiwan from any attack.
How did it come to this – and what happens next?
In this special analysis, DW's Richard Walker uncovers the roots of the dispute over Taiwan, in part 1 tracing how the diplomatic breakthroughs of the 1970s between the US and China left unfinished business that has festered ever since.
Part 2 tracks why these tensions have now burst into the open, with accusations of betrayal in all directions. And part 3 projects trends in China, the United States and Taiwan forward into the future to assess where the dispute is heading – and if there is any way of avoiding war.
Leading US authority on Taiwan, Shelley Rigger warns: "I think the danger is greater today than it has ever been before. The US and China are in this spiral of threat and counter threat, and Taiwan is caught in the middle." Retired People’s Liberation Army Senior Colonel Zhou Bo explains the scenarios under which China would use force. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sets out ideas for a diplomatic solution that he admits both China and Taiwan would "hate." CNAS think tank Chair Michèle Flournoy sets out her bottom line: "The key thing is for Beijing to recognize that if you go to war to seize Taiwan, you lose."
The film includes further interviews with Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu; retired Senior Colonel in China's People's Liberation Army, Zhou Bo; former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd; Center for a New American Security Chair Michèle Flournoy; Enoch Wu of the Forward Alliance NGO; Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Studies; German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock; German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck; and Till Steffen of the Berlin-Taipei Parliamentary Friendship Group.
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
04:47 Part 1: Origins
05:58 The "grand chessboard movement"
07:55 The secret mission
09:00 The "One China principle"
10:10 The diplomatic "fig leaf"
11:40 Taiwan isolated
12:40 "Hell, no!"
13:30 Strategic ambiguity
15:00 Diplomatic gymnastics
16:05 "Permeated with distrust"
16:45 Part 2: The Undoing
17:20 Chinese military pressure
18:00 Crossing the "median line"
18:30 Pelosi lands in Taipei
19:30 "The United States provoked China
20:30 Western lawmakers stream to Taiwan
21:20 Parallels to Ukraine
22:00 Preparing Taiwanese citizens for war
23:12 Taiwan’s growing sense of self
24:30 The US keeps the weapons flowing
25:25 PLA modernization
26:00 "We will become as strong as the US"
27:40 The US would defend Taiwan
28:43 "Hollowing out One China"
Part 3: Collision Course?
31:27 "We should not divide the world"
32:40 "There’s no hotline"
33:30 Compromises?
34:20 China’s preparations for war in the 2030s
35:30 "National rejuvenation"
37:37 China’s 3 invasion scenarios
39:30 One thing stands in China’s way
41:00 US focus on semiconductors
42:30 Timelines shrinking fast
43:30 Warnings from Europe
44:26 "Deterrence is the name of the game"
45:03 "America’s intention is to contain China"
46:20 "Taiwan is caught in the middle"
47:20 The front line of the front line
48:30 Asymmetric warfare
49:30 Training for resilience
50:45 Opposition calls for dialogue
51:40 Any chance of a breakthrough?
53:40 How long can the tension hold?
55:10 Taiwan’s greatest hope?
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#Taiwan #China #xijinping
All Comments (21)
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As someone who lived in Taiwan for 4 years, Taiwanese people and culture is incredibly beautiful, and I wish nothing but the best for them.
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A very good piece of reporting. As a Taiwanese person living in Taiwan, I do wish there were a line or two on how the US or the Western countries might not have come to our aid if it weren't for Taiwan's position in the global supply chain that has developed in the last few decades, semiconductor industry included. As much as we need and appreciate the support, it would be naive to think that these supports are not based on the interests and benefits of individual countries.
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Great documentary DW! Keep them coming!
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Why doesn't anyone mention the fact that Taiwan and China can never be reunified simply because they were never unified in the first place
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This documentary makes us realize how much we live on such a small planet, everyone's stakes are on a thread that if it breaks, it drags all of humanity down, but at what cost...
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My dear friends from Taiwan please remember wise words from a former United State Secretary of State . Henry Kissinger said " To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is FATAL " REMEMBER that please
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As a Taiwanese person living in Taiwan, I do wish there were a line or two on how the US or the Western countries might not have come to our aid if it weren't for Taiwan's position in the global supply chain that has developed in the last few decades, semiconductor industry included. As much as we need and appreciate the support, it would be naive to think that these supports are not based on the interests and benefits of individual countries.
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I worked in Taiwan for 4 years building bridges and rehabbing bridges. The people are incredible. It's one of the few places I worked and was well treated. I will not forget.
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what a good way to spend 56:24 minutes in the afternoon. Thanks for a very informative report. I live in Asia & this concerns me a great deal. Keep up the good work! No war please.
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When was this released? I know it was uploaded a month ago.
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Richard Walker what beach was that you walked up & down
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Lived in Taiwan 60 to 63 as child. Good part of my life remember great people beautiful spirits.
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Wow. This was an amazing documentary report on the Taiwan issue! Thank you DW News for producing this! After watching the video I'd say it's one of the best reports I've watched because it has addressed so much of the nuance and historical events regarding Taiwan!
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This was so informative and helped shed light on such convoluted and deep-seated issues. Great video!
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Thank you for the background story. I was familiar but only vaguely. Too bad Putin and China feel so strongly about land. I suppose in both cases these are strategic, and history is a never ending repeat.
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Very detailed and informative, thanks
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I love how often Rudd was able to use the term “salami-slice” in one interview
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Well Rounded Documentary, very informative and Impartial from the interviewer, letting the people tell their side of the story and providing facts. I hope you continue informing us in the same way. Very Good.
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Henry Kissinger: leaving war and chaos in his wake for a hundred years.
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This was made exceptionally well
