“Black Swan” Investment Advice: Be Prepared
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Published 2020-10-23
In the last twenty years, we have lived through 9/11, the global financial crisis, and now a global pandemic with the unintended consequence of rolling economic lockdowns.
On an investment level, all of these events have delivered a sharp hit to financial markets from which they have recovered. Such is the resilience and strength of the U.S. capital markets and the underlying economy.
But on a personal finance level, the impact of these events can be much more damaging and long-lasting, particularly for individuals nearing retirement or in it, which is why we asked this week’s guest to join us. Clients in those vulnerable years are his focus.
Our guest this week is Mark Cortazzo, a certified financial planner, Founder, and Senior Partner of MACRO Consulting Group an independent wealth management firm.
We asked Cortazzo to walk us through the conversations he has been having with clients about preparing for these “Black Swan” events.
WEALTHTRACK #1717 broadcast on October 23, 2020
More info at: wealthtrack.com/financial-survival-through-an-unfo…
All Comments (21)
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Thank you Consuelo and guest, excellent information!
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Great guest! More like him please
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Excellent advice
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I don’t know what they’re talking about but it makes alot of sense
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Brilliant guy. Mark r: eally lays it out for you. In retirement Rebalance. Be diversified. Dont take excessive chances. You dont have 30 years to make it back like when you were 30. I fear the low (no) interest rate environment will cause seniors to be way to risky.
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I'm seeing a lot more comments today on Wealthtrack. From some of the comments it seems like novices have found the channel. This guy knows what he is talking about. He's well know and is a CFP.
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Would someone explain the difference between MGV and VTV?
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If the Treasury is supporting markets.... then if the market goes in a straight horizontal line... and fed cash is till going into the market. The sellers in the Market are getting a direct subsidy from the government?
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Interesting that he observes that it's impossible to predict whether growth or value will "outperform" the market (hence the conclusion that "winning the loser's game" would suggest buying and holding the TOTAL stock market - containing both growth and value in one investment) and then giving as his "One investment idea for the long run in a diversified investment" as a "Large Value" fund. Why not just keep it simple and invest for a lifetime in Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index fund (VTI or VTSAX)? Expense ratio of 0.03%.
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What to do if there is a coup and the dollar collapses?
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As long as the Fed is keeping money free the majority of money being invested is going into stocks. Doing esoteric tricky gimmick investments usually ends in tears. About 30% of my portfolio is in cash and bonds and to be honest it is money I don't need for anything and it is what I consider my FU fund. The rest is in a variety of equity positions. Some of it is value and dividend some is growth and a good chunk in a vanilla total stock market index. When times are flush I skim off the top and put it in cash or bonds when people are jumping out of windows and there is blood in the streets I usually transfer some from cash into equities that have had a downturn. My wife retired at 56 and there is a high probability that I will be able to retire by 60.
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Low risk is a muni school bond in a growing area like Texas. Try austin community college bonds. Around 2% still.
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90% of financial advisors and mutual fund managers don't beat their benchmarks. Would you get in an airplane that has a 90% chance of crashing? Just buy an index fund and you'll do fine.
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Harris had me at hello
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Don Corleone would ask someone like this to be his consigliere.
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Strength of US stock markets and underlying economy? The productivity of Asia and determination of South American not to be pushed under is reality.
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LOVE this show. But what's with some of the 'knowing' smiles? It's as if they're getting snarky comments in their earpieces from the production crew.
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i wouldent put nothin in bonds. if they loose those rates they could loose half quick. thats your black swan.
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5% of a 1 million investment is NOT $60,000 a year it would be $50,000 a year.
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This person just gave you a complicated solution for a simple problem. He just wants you to pay a financial adviser. First research told you to do 4% withdraw rate to start with. He used 5% withdraw rate to scare you. My solution is just very simple - buy Wellington fund (2/3 equity & 1/3 fixed income) and withdraw 3.5% (wait until 3.5% is enough before you retire)
