Inflation: Understanding the History [2021]

WEALTHTRACK
WEALTHTRACK
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Published 2021-07-16
Part 1 of 2
If there is one adjective we have heard repeatedly in the last year and a half it is “unprecedented”. It has been applied to describe the amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been poured into the economy. It has been used in relation to the pandemic lockdowns and reopenings, and the record-breaking runs in stock, bonds, real estate, and commodity markets.

Is there no historical precedent for these events?

Who better to ask than this week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Niall Ferguson? Ferguson has studied booms, busts, the rise and fall of empires, the power of social networks, and catastrophes of all sorts including plagues and pandemics?

He is one of the world's leading historians and an influential commentator on contemporary politics and economics. Ferguson is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, along with being the author of numerous articles, and a regular columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.

His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe, which analyzes how societies have reacted to crises from the Roman response to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius to how various governments have handled Covid-19.

According to Ferguson, experience has taught him that understanding history does help make us better investors. In this week’s interview, he explains why.

00:00 Hello
00:40 Introduction
02:50 Interview with Niall Ferguson
24:20 Action Point

#inflation #history #economy #NiallFerguson

WEALTHTRACK #1803 broadcast on 07-16-21

More info: wealthtrack.com/using-history-to-predict-the-marke…

Bookshelf:
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe - amzn.to/2Ujtdw3
Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire - amzn.to/2VL2HvP
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West - amzn.to/3epbI48
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World - amzn.to/3z8p0u6
The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook - amzn.to/3B9jKrH
All Comments (21)
  • @freeroamer9146
    I well remember the inflation in the 70's. A salary increase of 12% hardly raised an eyebrow when inflation was 14! To make matters worse, home loans were going for 19%! Ronald Reagan won a landslide victory over Jimmy Carter in 80. By reelection in 84, the Reagan economy had obtained stability with strong signs of recovery ahead!
  • @CJinsoo
    fascinating man, great to see him branching off into political risk and investment risk. such difficult topics to forecast, will benefit from a great mind like his.
  • @dipaknadkarni62
    Okay Niall, Please predict the next market downturn. Thanks.
  • @chessdad182
    That was interesting the mention of the 1960s as I grew up then and remember the inflation of the 70s.
  • @P37RU5
    He lost me when he started to be bias about Bitcoin
  • @frankwiersma7980
    Using history to predict the markets does not work because you need to know the future to predict the markets not the past.
  • @jackburton806
    Meh History might not repeat itself but it does rhyme. This is not a typical guest I would expect on this type of show. I have a prescient prediction for everyone. Roughly every 7 years there is some sort of exogenous or endogenous shock that will rock the markets and eventually there will be a recovery. Lather rinse repeat. I have been investing for over 40 years and basically it is 7 years up, 2 down and one flat. There saved you 27 minutes of blather. Anyone that says "Bitcoin is a digital gold" needs to be flogged in public.
  • @MSINFONOR
    Thank you for your great and interesting programs Consuelo. The fundamentals are there - severe drought for the farmers in the west (farming corn ++), with inflation (Not the “transitory” FED BS), Extreme pricing in the housing market, Delta-variant Covid-19 issues, Federal government money printing (M2), Record high unemployment - yes, it’s a pick and choose because the stock market sure isn’t doing anything! The only concern I hear from this so-called market specialist is growth issues… But there are some very good economist that is truly afraid Of what is happening in the market now
  • @jj4321
    A historian boast about he predicted pandemic. I did so too before Jan 25, 2020 because Lunar New year. History didn't predict future. Bitcoin is virtual without real asset to back it up, invented in air. It is the time of opportunitists who jump in to the gambling investment. How did the opportunity come about? See PBS "the power of Fed".
  • @trankt54155
    Man, Consuela has been inviting guests with crystal balls one after another......I am impressed like hell.
  • @johnlandau7111
    This perhaps the most peri;ous moment in American history so far. We have the deep, difficult to reconcile internal conflicts caracteristic of the period 1856-1877, aperilous economic situation similar to 1929 and 2008, and menacing international situation not too different from 1916-17 and 1938-41, all in the same year. But unlike 1861-65, 1916-17, and 1938-41, we don’t have a strong president in full possession of his mental powers in charge. Instead, we have a president whose mental powers appear to be gradually fading, and who must rely on heavy support from his Vice President and staff assistants to cope with his responsibilities.