Climate Tipping Points in Oceans, Ice, Forests - Myles Allen

@58:30 Yea, likelihood of wars rises when natural resources like food and water dwindles. Losing coral reefs means 1 billion people are our of job and food. That amount of people that are seeking something else will make many areas unstable. Places where sea level rise wil hit are yet another. Already in Florida people are starting to see this and they are migrating away. Mass migration from dried conditions in Africa and Central America has pushed people away. And have created multiple conflicts. And are rising hatred against refugees. If things go wrong we may even accelerate our own doom by starting nuclear war over climate driven issues.

Myles Allen is always very clear. So the ocean overturning is slowed by more rain towards the poles. The rain must be drawn from more southerly oceans for this to be an issue. Clearly as warm air travels north it reaches a due point after which there is no more precipitation. So the question is how far on average the moist air travels. If the overturning takes place and the weather cools then the due point will move south again. Has the possibility of a self regulating system been eliminated from the range of possibilities? Also less rain in the Amazon which is Tropical. How does this square with increased tropical evaporation going to the poles? Next question: If moist air is moving to different locations do the ocean currents affect the wind - trade winds and so on? My guess is yes. To my mind still more work to be done on all this.

Dense, supercool highly saline water comes from beneath the ice sheet. There are wonderful videos of the effects of dense supercooled water sinking to the polar ocean floor and instantly freezing the numerous animals on the ocean floor. Polar precipitation leads to dilute low density surface water which freezes more readily as the semiannual polar winter progresses. Thank heavens we do not live on a planet that runs on models, but instead runs on physics, and unpredictable chaos.

Unhelpful does not mean incorrect. We can still help, it is too late to stop!

Thanks a lot for the geophysical explanation; I didn't know that before.

Very clear præsentation. Perhaps I missed it, but I would have liket to hear a word on the recent Dithlevsen/Dithlevsen article on the AMOC.

Excellent presentation! Wish I could be as optimistic as Myles.

Thank you for such an accessible (for a non-physicist) presentation. Look forward to the next one.

last month was the hottest on record here in Florida

Greetings from Scotland. Snow overnight, lasting into the morning. The bus and cars couldn't get up the hill. Heavy sleet / rain in the afternoon. But that'a just weather isn't it ?

Could we harvest the melt water? Build water pipelines to some of the major reservoirs? Would that reduce some of the sea Ievel rise and other issue's? Such as temperature, current and salinization levels? I know that it sounds like a nearly impossible feat with logistics and cost but I would say that our survival is priceless.

And it has been for the last 20 thousand or more years!...back then the ice was a mile thick over chicago.

What about the effect of the increase in water distillation and the increase of salinity in the waters around the coasts especially in the Mediterranean?

Opening sentence, “ net zero “ was mentioned. That recent, duplicitous phrase that can mean anything you want because it’s effectively dishonest accounting. Great start. Watching and waiting for redemption.

At one time the poles had no ice

Sorry to point out another error, but modern geological thinking has the drainage of Lake Agassiz as causing the 8.2 event at 8,200 years ago rather than the Younger Dryas. This might actually help your argument as no AMOC collapse occurred at that point. The 'recent' AMOC switches relate to the DO events within the glaciation period.

Except that William Happer has calculated that CO2 is significantly non-linear: he states that doubling CO2 will not double its contribution to temperature rise. If Happer is correct, why do the models show a linear temperature rise?

“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.” - Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Mukhtar Babayev will be the president for COP 29; he is also a former executive of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijian Republic. Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.

We have time to act, but not time to waste. Also I think we can mitigate the worsening of it in general, but 'fix it', is idealistic. We can make the best of a bad situation, by trying to do our best, but we can't return to a 'fix' of how it was before carbon. So let's make the best go of it, for what it's worth in regards of that, and not give out/give up

0.8 Celsius / 50 year... It is un unmeasurable...