How 2023 Broke Our Climate Models with Neil deGrasse Tyson & Gavin Schmidt

What was your biggest takeaway from this Explainer?

7:00 "When we don't understand something, there's science to be done." I love that statement

The irony of it all is that the climate or the earth does not give a dime about us human beings. It is not about saving the planet, it is about saving us!

No mention of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption, which was predicted to have significant impact on warming of the Earth. Most eruptions cause cooling, but in this case, it erupted under the ocean throwing water vapor into the upper atmosphere causing a heating affect. The moisture in the stratosphere incresed 10%-15% and is expected to last for many years.

The kidding around kept reminding me of the talk show in Don’t Look Up. That’s probably the most useful emotion we can express on YouTube though

There was an episode of the Drew Carey Show where Drew complained about how cold the Cleveland winter was, so he angrily sprayed aerosol from his front door into the sky in order to accelerate global warming. That scene has stuck with me for over 20 years and the irony of it coming full circle is terrifying

I'd like to point out that this was noticed in 2001. When air traffic was grounded for just a few days after the Sept-11 attack, the increase in warming was measured. As I recall, "pan evaporation rates" are daily measurements made in standard pans, as they are topped off each day. The effect of aerosols was dubbed "global dimming" and the irony that pollution was mitigating global warming was very much noted, too.

You could tell me tomorrow in your voice we all are going to die and I’d take comfort hearing it from you. And take the rest of my time accordingly.

Thank you for all you do for us and the planet! Take good care of yourself, as we need you around!

Best climate graph ever I really liked the tornado. It really visualizes change.

I remember the late Brian Kaye saying that the only thing we can reliably predict about non-linear systems is that our predictions will probably be wrong.

Thank you for bringing you. You should consider captioning it in other languages for broader audiences! Probably through some partnerships, but that is also above my pay grade.

Some people think the sooner we act, the better. I take the opposite view, because almost anything we do has unintended consequences. Better to continue to study and learn and improve technology, so that future solutions are not as burdensome, more likely to succeed, and have fewer unforeseen consequences.

Niel made a mistake there : a millionth of a meter is not 1/1000 cm, but rather 1/1000 mm (or 1/10000 cm)

Living out here on an island in the middle of the Pacific with a volcano on it, we know that the particulates in our air change our climate and the other thing that he didn’t really talk about, but is a big factor is that giant volcano that blew up and sent water aerosol vapor into the stratosphere, which is a big big deal and that’s why we were a bit hotter in 2023 because of that volcano

Many years ago, there were one or two scientists pointing out the direct heating affect, from the energy released into the atmosphere, of the fossile fuels - basically the BTUs/calories in the fuel burned, which is millions of tons a year.

Science is always a fascinating mystery. Glad we still have passionate people involved in study.

Gavin Schmidt took a lot of shots in this lol, he handled it well

"we is not an effective we" hit the nail on the head.

Questions: 1. Is there an unedited / uncut version? 2. Does Tyson disagree with the following statements by Schmidt?: a. "Long term trend" is 50 years b. "The longest running time series of global temperatures started in the 1980's" c. For the latest year, 2023, "the model was a total failure" d. Total failure of the model required "notes of caution", show "we don't understand", "there's science to be done", "predictions of the future are less certain", "not sure what's going to happen", and that he's "uncomfortable" My biggest question is: How can any scientist have such confidence in forecasting climate for the next century within minutes of declairing their latest and greatest model is admittedly a "total failure" in it's latest forecast?