Aleksib IGL Masterclass! Major Fluke Context Changed? b1t Dominates! - NAVI Wins EWC 2024 - CS2

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play bad and win a tournament: well you played bad so its a fluke, play good and win a tournament: well you normally play bad so its a fluke

Have you concidered that the TOP 6 ish teams are closest than maybe ever? I feel like any of these can win a tournament. It's so exciting to see cs now compared to the astralis era for example

Blade is the Guardiola of Counter-Strike)

The data on Na’Vi’s ratings at the two tournaments they’ve won this year was really interesting, and I agree that it shows a team significantly deviating from either their personal norms or that of CS overall. However, if you have a team that can “fluke” it’s way to victory with low fragging because it has the by far best IGL/Coach combo in the game, and can also “fluke” it’s way to victory by having players put up really incredible ratings beyond what is often required to win a similarly competitive tournament, then I think that actually makes it harder to say those wins were flukes. At some point the variance of results isn’t a bug, it’s a feature of a team constructed in a wholly different manner to usual. If anything, I think what’s more apt is to say the team itself is a fluke, in that Na’Vi’s success is a model that can’t really be followed by other teams (due to difference-making IGLs and coaches being the rarest commodities in the current day).

I want to push back a bit (pun intended) on some of the points here. Let me be clear, im not an analyst trying to push my points, im just genuinely curious what people think about this. 1. people say: B1t is over performing and we cant expect this again. I think that this could be true but I wanna see how it goes over time. Remember B1t is 21, speaking English for the first time and playing anchor positions (which I think he wasn't actually playing in the old navi until electronic took over as igl (I could be wrong on this last one)). I feel like we have seen b1ts peak and it's incredible and we have seen his floor and avg and they aren't amazing but it's not unreasonable to assume that he had a rocky few years given the circumstances. I believe B1t could start peaking in the next few years and all that he needs to do is raise his floor. 2. iM, I think that people are holding his bad performances in the beginning of the team against him now when he has actually gotten steadily better and more importantly, more confident. If you look at the stats he is getting better and better and and he is definitely passing the eye test when it comes to his confidence and aim recently. I believe he too can get to the point where he is avg .05 or .10 better rating consistently if b1ade and aleksi manage him well 3. W0nderful. People sleep on this kid, he is 19, we shouldn't expect him to instantly come up and be consistent. We need him to pop off when needed and work on his performance in semis and finals where the pressure seems to get to him. 4. JL yeah I agree with thorin here, x factor who can pop of to take over the odd game or can make crazy plays to bring the team back into a game, or hype the team up. 5. Aleksi, Agree with thorin, best IGL 6. B1ade. I mean... It is blade best coach in the scene rn and given the success of this roster which came out of nowhere imo, clearly the GOAT coach. He won the major with the hardest and most toxic pro and he won the major without a top 10 player. His timeouts are insane and any time he and his team get proper prep for an event, they look so hot. I think they aren't the best team in the world, yet. I think they can be but they have to solve the problems I mentioned above with 1-3 and we need wonderful to become a bona fide star but they aren't that far from there. If they are able to win a few good series against vitality and spirit (the only two teams they consistently look bad against) then I think everyone will have to reevaluate these takes. Even though they aren't the best in the world though saying that they are still possibly 6th is kinda crazy when they have pretty huge winning streaks against two of the teams you put against them (faze and g2) and notably they have beat both of those teams in big lan event finals. (Now before people say well g2 win doesn't count bc new roster, ok that's fine but in that case they have to earn their spot above navi then and they have not done). I think i would put spirit above navi rn but i would put navi at 2 and mouz at 3 for now because as it stands navi have won as many lans this year than Faze, Vitality, g2, and VP combined. I think people are putting too much stock into navi not having a consistent stand out star player. I am not a huge stategist but when i see navi playing against teams who have better stars i consistently see navi shut those stars down with the best teamplay and calling in the game. Tldr, b1ade has shown time and time again that he has one of the best eyes for talent in the scene and B1t and w0nderful still have so much time to get better and iM is consistently improving. Combine this with a really good xfactor in JL, the best igl in the scene rn, and INDISPUTABLY the best coach that's a recipe for success. Let B1ade cook Love the vid thorin, youre content has been fire recently. Curious what people think of my dumbass opinions

iM 's role is not to be a top fragger like in GL and this is the reason many think he is not feeling well in NAVI or that he is not good enough for a top 5 team. iM 's role in NAVI is a different one and i don't think many other players u said they should be better replacing him would be able to handle that role especially from a mental point of view when all the idiots on chat will call u noob every single time for not fragging like you used to. CS is not about fragging only. iM is a player that cares more about helping the team than his own stats. Even on inferno agains G2 he dropped his M4 when he sensed that G2 are coming from apartments knowing b1t is in a better position for that weapon and took b1t 's mp9 to play as a diversion. iM is doing the dirty jobs and he is not complainging about it. u won't see many players willing to play such a role and maybe this is one of the reasons navi is so strong as a team because nobody wanna be a star. If u think a coach like Bla1d3 would keep iM if he is not good at what he is doing or good enough for NAVI then it means Bla1d3 is stupid and you and other casters should start coaching

All these stats are more or less pointless for talking about winning tournaments. At the Major NaVi already showed that they can win a tournament while losing more rounds than they won. Here they showed that they can frag quite a bit harder than they even need in order to scrape by a tournament win. The fragging stats are worlds apart but the result in the context of contending for trophies is exactly the same. In fact, the real key for NaVi's success and the greatest single factor supporting the idea that these results are replicable, is their mental resilience and ability to just shrug off massive map or even series losses in the case of the major. They also have a lineup of players that on average significantly elevates their game under the biggest pressure, as opposed to a field where most teams perform better with less pressure (FaZe is basically the only one that at least historically gets better under pressure, or perhaps just trolls in the absence of it). In a relatively even field, with more or less random tournament formats and seedings, if you can consistently get into the playoffs and then can elevate your game when you get there, you can absolutely keep winning these "fluke" titles at a very good rate even with mediocre aggregate fragging stats and round win percentages. There are no leagues or other such competitive formats where every win and loss would count equally. Best of 3 series mean that you can ALWAYS throw one map even 13-0 if you want as long as you just make sure to get just two more round wins on each of the other two maps. None of the ratings and stats account for any of that variance. The statistical comparison between the Major win and the EWC win only shows you that they won the latter with a wider margin than the former.

Navi just wins... doesn't matter.

So. Just bc you clap few teams 2-0 and that raises your kd and rating they are just fluking and not completly stepping all over the enemy and reading them like a open book. Jesus christ sometimes thorins takes are bad.

NaVi have been to the Grand Finals in 3 of the last 5 big events. What other team can say that?

Hot take Navi is going to keep this level and possibly get even better? Their resilience and the coaching and mentality teams behind the scenes seem like they’re excellent. Speaking English and going international is no small feat and it seems like they’re just actually given time to grow within a very quality system. Not saying they’re the best team right now (spirit, mouz, etc.) but clearly they’re on an upward trajectory in my opinion.

At what point g2 could’ve win 2:0???? Navi were in complete control and easily outclassed g2 on last two maps

B1t goes absolutely insane in these matches that win Navi tournaments, he is the main X factor for Navi and considering hes 2 time major champion he needs more respect and praise than he been seem to getting lately(not that is was undiserved).

One point would be would we consider looking at Navi as the new FaZe? Win via different players popping off at different times as a group effort.

Thorin before: Na'Vi is not the best team. There are only S1mple and electronic who are fragging. The rest of the team plays like shit. And they didn't win as much as (Astralis/Vitality/Faze Clan) Thorin now: Na'Vi is not the best team. They play like team. They won 2 S Tier events. But they don't have Shiro and Donk who did a lot of the frags. Your consistency to talk shit about NaVi is amazing =))

So, numbers on hltv means more than tournament wins, according to Thooorin. If whole team died, but won because of the bomb explosion, it's a fluke anyway because the kd stats are bad. If some players show different results in different tournaments, it is purely random. It cannot be that player loses motivation after winning the Major. This cannot be explained by rest after such a tournament, and bootcamp before the EWC. If after several poorly played tournaments, the team starts playing very well and wins all opponents without a chance, there is no need to analyze why this happened. This is of course, completely random because the team has to win 5 tournaments in a row with very high statistical numbers. Spirit, Vitality and Mouz wins every tournament, unlike NaVi.

the sad part, to me, about this whole fluke narrative is that it overshadows that NaVi is winning through team play and great calling and game planning! the narrative in cs2 is all about shooting and that teams like Ence and Heroic in CSGO don't work anymore - but NaVi is doing it right now! Even if it is fluke-y. I think aleksi and blade should really get their flowers for managing to win with this roster and the whole roster for winning through proper team play in a fragger dominated meta. Will they win anything else? I doubt it, and I still want roster moves but let's appreciate the best caller and coach coming together right now to show team cs is not dead

I swear... some people will call navi flukers till the end. what do you want? another major?

Thorin forgot that that was their plan, to become better in the second season...