Tropics Watch: Development likely for area heading toward Florida’s east coast
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Published 2022-11-06
As of 7 a.m. Sunday, the National Hurricane Center is giving the area a 70% chance of tropical development in the next two days, 90% in the next five.
Based on the latest models, even with a possible subtropical or tropical low sitting over 400 miles from Florida, conditions will be felt as early as Monday with beach and marine conditions already considered very dangerous. Expect that life-threatening rip currents, choppy surf and large breaking waves will continue, in addition to a growing concern for beach erosion around the times of high tide.
By Tuesday, we could see wind gusts up to 30 mph inland and up to 40 mph along the coast. Worsening conditions continue with seas forecast to reach 9-13 feet nearshore.
As the system tracks north near the Bahamas, it will begin to interact with a large ridge, quickly steering it west-southwestward Tuesday afternoon. After this point, models begin to differ on the path of the low.
By Wednesday, a strong subtropical or tropical system will be picking up speed and some intensity as it moves southwestward toward the northern Bahamas. Models suggest tropical moisture arriving as early as Wednesday afternoon. The EURO model guidance is faster taking a more southward trajectory, where the GFS brings a slower storm across central Florida and into the Panhandle. The slowest model is the Canadian, showing the system approaching by Thursday afternoon.
With that being said, and with many communities still dealing with impacts from Hurricane Ian, we should not take this system lightly. Depending on the low’s strengths and track, impacts with rainfall and flooding could be a big concern.
The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting another area in the Tropics near Bermuda. It has a 70% chance of developing to a short-lived storm later Saturday.
The next two names on the 2022 Hurricane List are Nicole and Owen.
All Comments (21)
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Imagine that. Typical tropical weather for a tropical climate in a tropical zone. So shocking.
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You are an excellent meteorological broadcaster.
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What a season 2022 has been. It got going with a roar in the beginning, fading to a whimper at the height and now we're back to the roar at the end!
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Wow, I love how clear and articulate you are about the system, you need to replace some of the others. 😁
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Yup a rainy day! Ditch the hysteria
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I just changed a flight a few days ago for a Thursday flight out of Tallahassee to Dallas on to CO. Originally I was scheduled from Talla to Miami toDallas… At the time I booked it was a toss up which layover airport had the greatest chance of a November weather event.
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I live in Bradenton Fl and Iran came our way. Thank God I didn't have no damage to my home. The only thing happen that my neighbor wooden fence fell on my chain link fence and it's only lending over a little and not straight, which they haven't done anything about it. Just let all of us just pray that it want come our way, We just definitely don't need another one, especially for those who had major property damage from the last one. Remember to pray.
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Thank you for.latest info Ms Candace "for it ain't over 'till?..." have a great day. 🌹
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I would not turn my back on the one just north of PR and the DR...the feeding bands of that thing dumped an enormous amount of rain in a matter of hours on Santo Domingo between Thu-Fri, caused severe flash flooding and there is talk the cost may actually exceed what Fiona did in the eastern DR weeks ago.
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Way better on YouTube I love the breakdown.
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I feel terrible that some places are being hit again after being hit terribly by hurricane Ian
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The uk met model is very good too
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Just flipping great
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All Republicans should remember to not vote in advance. You can't trust mail-in, so make sure you wait until Wednesday to vote in-person!
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Excellent explanation by a great meteorologist. 👍
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😊 thanks
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Why do they say that Nichole is next named storm. The list indicate the next one would be Martin then Nichole
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This is horrible first Ian then Nicole and NOW OWEN this is too much now I have to put down my Christmas decorations outside😕
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After watching her I want to go fishing. Excellent report 👍 and great fishing lure earrings.😋🤳🐟🐟
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I know I'm living in Florida and this is hurricane country, but geez, gives us all a break here!!!
