Kharkiv Battle Analysis, Sumy Invasion Next?
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Published 2024-05-14
I want to examine the Ukraine war update on the front lines gray zone area where the battle in Kharkiv has unfolded on its 5th day as the fog of war starts to lift. News of the world even has traveled fast. Then I want to take a look at if Russian forces might be planning to invade Sumy next. We’ll also cover any recent diplomatic changes in messaging on either side or their allies.
The first thing you need to know is that In the Kharkiv direction, The number of border villages Russia claims to have captured in Kharkiv has now increased to between 9 and 12.
The number isn’t important, what matters really matters is how close is the closest one to Kharkiv city? One such close proximity town that was captured appears to be (Loo-k'yahn-tsee) Luk'yantsi. The reason this is concerning from the Ukrainian defenders point of view is because the next town in line is (Lee-pt-see) Lyptsi. If that were to fall it could theoretically put Kharkiv within Artillery range. This is why I think the Ukrainian intelligence general said to the new york times quote ““The situation is on the edge. Every hour this situation moves toward critical.” However It’s unclear what the end goal is for the Russian assault at this point. Do they plan to continue forward with what Moscow has described as a buffer zone?
Evidence that these claims of Russian advances are likely accurate comes from The Ukraine’s general of staff who said quote"At present, the enemy has tactical success" then we can take a look at a video that has gone viral of what appears to be two Russian platoons marching within 3 meters of each other. Normally if you expected to receive fire you would be space out much further instead they appear to be walking into Kharkiv oblast which seems to possibly support the reports that initial defensive lines did not work as anticipated.
Before we continue I have a small disclaimer for you, keep in mind that the situation on the ground is developing rapidly and the information is subject to change. This report I’ve put together for you here, is a curation of various different sources all of which have their own biases, I made sure some of them are from the Russian perspective and some are from the Ukranian one. I too admittedly have my own personal biases. But I think that’s part of being human, especially if you’re talking about something you care about. However, It’s important for you to be aware of those biases. I’m here to share with you my imperfect view of the battlefield so I can hear your feedback and constructive criticisms, both of which I appreciate as it helps me improve.
We’ve seen reports of major shake ups in both the Ukrainian leadership. On May 11th just one day after the invasion of Kharkiv, the Ukrainian Commander responsible for the defense of North Eastern frontlines General Yuriy (Ha-lush-kin) Halushkin was relieved of his command and replaced by General (Mick-high-low Drah-pah-tee) Mykhaylo Drapatiy. Dprapatiy was responsible for leading the combat operations in recapturing the city of Kherson in 2022. The fact that the former commander in Kharkiv was replaced could be seen as another indication that the initial defensive operations did not go as planned. Newsweek reportedly spoke to Ukrainian military and local officials in vovchansk who said that Russian artillery shelling on the border made it difficult for them to build proper fortifications. It’s tough to bring in civilian construction equipment and lay down dragons teeth and drudge up trenches when you’re under explosive artillery fire. What remains to be seen is if defensive lines were created further back from the border in safer places, this is something we will find out in the coming weeks.
#UKRAINE #WAR #KHARKIV
All Comments (21)
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I'll be chatting with you here for the next few hours on the Task & Purpose Discord Server: discord.gg/yQdCazQDg7 Yes its true I have a bias and a perspective. I am not disspassionate when it comes to this topic. I do my best to not let that influence my reports but my point of view definitely informs what I say. I hope this place can be a place for positive discourse about various conflicts although, increasingly, I am not sure that is possible anymore.
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so the Battlefield games where dudes cruise around map with ATVs became real life
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In the early 1970's I was a British infantryman in West Germany. We were trained to fight a war that, thank the gods, never happened. I remember saying to an officer, "These massive manoeuvres are too vulnerable. The next war will be fought at platoon or even section level." He laughed at me. Maybe I had a field marshal's baton in my knapsack... But, it just seemed logical to me. Armies, historically, always seem to be perfectly trained to fight the last war, not the next one.
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I have mad respect that you acknowledged referencing different sources and your own personal biases, without then going into an ad read for ground news. Impressive to acknowledge that with no ulterior motive
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Im not surprised, and no one else should be, either, to see the use of motorcycles or ATV’s in Ukraine. The nature of the terrain is what gave so many horse mounted warriors an advantage in this area back in the day.
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I can imagine as a commander one of the worst factors of planning is never knowing what actual resources are actually available to deploy. Western press glamorizes short term deliveries of limited equipment, however those cannot be replaced by attrition.
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They used to hunt tanks in the 50’s and 60’s with recoiless rifles and jeeps. Seems like what’s old is new again.
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These gains have been completed purely by Russian recon units which should be extremely concerning to the UAF. From everything I have seen Russia has utilized very little mechanized forces thus far and maybe surprised at how quickly they are gaining ground. I have seen little evidence that the Ukrainian estimate of 50-60% of Russian forces have already been committed bc again almost all these territorial gains have been by foot. In my experience this looks like recon by fire that penetrated much further than anticipated and the true offensive hasn’t even begun yet based on the limited use of mechanized units. It wouldn’t surprise me if Russia looks to potentially open up yet another front from Belarus just north of Kyiv, if this occurs Ukraine is going to have a hard time deploying their reserves
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This the only channel openly stated that he is bias. But trying to be neutral which is very refreshing in this moment where everyone wanted to push their own agenda. Kudos
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Your pronunciation of Condottieri makes your David Cameron impression look positively masterful.
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Twice in a week is insane!
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When I was an intelligence analyst, the biggest challenge I faced was to think the way the enemy is thinking. At the strategic level, this was much less difficult than at the tactical, for obvious reasons. I liked your disclaimer of your own personal bias. Sometimes, when you do things that irk people, saying " Yes I did this. So what exactly is the problem?" will leave people speechless. Awesome video Chris. Personally, I am biased towards the Ukraine.
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Thanks so much for your update.
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An excellent video thank you!
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This channel evolved in a great manner, from a little trashy but funny military news to quite a good overview of difficulte situation with more and more research practices applied. The credibility improved a lot. Thanks for this!
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I have just subscribed...I am impressed by what you have said and look forward to future vlogs.
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Danke!
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No mention of Blinken playing guitar at a Kiev/Kyiv night club during his visit?
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I'm too old to be a "spare part," but Chris's commentary is one of my important detailed and background information sources, updating information for a guy who left the Army in 1973.
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Thank you Cappy!
