Why China's population is shrinking
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Published 2023-03-27
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For the first time in six decades, China’s population is shrinking, and it’s predicted it could create a demographic crisis. That’s because China isn’t just shrinking, it’s also aging. And the majority of Chinese couples are not considering having more than one child. Because of this, China is predicted to lose nearly 50 percent of its population by 2100.
China’s population decline can be traced back to the restrictive family-planning policies launched in the 1970s and an impressive economic boom fueled by China’s huge labor force.
China’s modernization brought rapid urbanization, rising income levels, and better education to large parts of China. Combined, these policies and growth have given China one of the lowest birth rates in the world.
Today, China is trying to reverse its population decline. Not just because an aging population is hard to sustain economically, but because China’s impressive economic growth, until now, has relied on its people. As China’s population challenges deepen over time, it might have to rethink how to grow its economy and care for its citizens.
You can explore China’s birth and death rate data via the United Nations Population portal, here:
population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/MORT/De…
population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/FERT/Bi…
As well as the country’s total population and predictions here:
population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT…
Here are some key facts about China’s declining population from Pew Research:
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/12/05/key-facts…
You can read some surprising details about China’s family planning policies — for example, the One-Child Policy was actually less impactful than the Later, Longer, Fewer campaign — here: scholar.harvard.edu/files/martinwhyte/files/challe…
Here’s an overview of China’s economic development from the World Bank:
www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/overview
And a report on China’s income gap:
www.aeaweb.org/research/charts/china-income-gap-ru…
For an in-depth look at the cruelty and human cost of China’s One-Child policy, I recommend the documentary One Child Nation by Nanfu Wang:
www.pbs.org/independentlens/documentaries/one-chil…
You can explore population pyramids from across the world on the US Census Bureau’s website:
www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/#/country?COUNT…
Finally, our expert, Professor Wang Feng, believes China’s population growth can be framed in a positive light. To understand how, read this piece he wrote for the New York Times:
www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2023/02/01/wang-…
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All Comments (21)
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They didn't even touch upon the fact that the "One-Child Policy" led to a scarcity of females, because every family wanted a little boy that would support them in their decrepitude. That puts a lot of pressure on a small number of women.
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It very funny to me, as someone who grew up in the 2000s and 2010s, how I kept hearing about overpopulation and how that was the world's biggest problem. But today, shrinking populations is all I hear about.
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“If having children doesn’t make my life better, what is the point having it?” If the government can’t answer this pressing question, I think it would be better off for youth to have no children.
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Made even worse by the fact that most families pursued a son over a daughter, leading to large disparities in populations of males vs females.
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I like how the government saw population policy like a switch which can turn on and off any moment
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As a Chinese myself, my answer is that the generations under the one-child policy, like me, are very self-centered, we no longer take having children as the task we have to do for our family, we think twice before deciding to have children. We explore our own lives more before we decide to bring more lives to this planet.
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Declining population is bad for the economy but good for the environment
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As a Chinese born in 1990, I was the first generation who born under the "one child policy". Back then most people like my parents worked at government owned company, so no one would break the policy because it could make them lose their job. All my friends are single child, and I was thought how it should be😂 I still remembered 6 years ago the government opened up 2 child if both parents are single child. But in no time, today, they told you to have as many child as you want LOL
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As a Chinese living in America, I asked some of my Chinese friends living in both China and abroad about their views on the population issue. Most of them don’t even care and a few of them even feel relieved because they’re tired of overcrowded cities in China 😂
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I'm 23-year old living in China. I asked some of my friends of the same age, almost no one plans to have children in the future. With a very tiring own life, who has the extra energy to take care of children？
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I live in America, and I remember growing up being told that there's too many people in the world, so I decided I wouldn't have any children. I wonder how many other people thought the same thing and came to the same conclusion...
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my heart always broke for the children that grew up not only with no siblings, but no cousins either. No cousins, no aunts or uncles. Just you, your parents, your grandparents. It seems simple enough when you are an adult, but a child should have relatives their own age too. Sure you can have friends. But no cousins? no aunts or uncles, bc the one child policy also affected your own parents generation? man, to me that is still such a sad thing.
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The living pressure are too high in China. Low salary, high house price, high goods prices, low social security and welfares; so people don't want to give birth any-more. Also, educational level has been raised in comparative to years ago. Higher educational people are more concerned with offspring's quality over quantity.
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Also in china and many asian countries you don't marry your spouse, you marry their family. It's just way too burdensome especially when you're already struggling in life
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As a generation Y in china, I think most of us can't afford to raise a single one child. We've been exhausted by living ourself.
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This channel mastered narrating stories in a way that makes you feel you uncover the mystery yourself .... Thank you Johnny!
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As a Chinese, I have to say most businesses in China are following a principle of "If you don't do something, someone else will do it", because there are too many people, and that is why most Chinese people are living under pressure from many aspects
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It would be interesting to see the relationship between population pyramids and immigration policies and economic longevity.
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There is a growing trend online in China, that young people say "We don't want our future generation also becoming cheap labor and breeding stock." Hence, why more than 50% of young people in China choose not to have multiple kids, let alone just one.
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Having children is financially stressful. Most of us are struggling, why do we want to struggle harder by having kids?
