Andreas Malm: "Overshoot: Climate Politics When It's Too Late"

The integrated assessment models have been one of the several key planks that have misdirected humanity since their inception. It's what these inadequate models don't include that's important. There's way too many signifant affective factors not included. Hansen is strong on this. His latest paper- global warming in the pipeline is instructive, highlighting earth energy imalance ( off the charts in the last 14 years) and the regulations of the IMO mandating reductions in the sulpur content of heavy and bunker fuel oil in ocean going shipping. These two factors alone make for stark reading. The IPCC reports omit all this while including NETS- negative emission tech, that isn't proven to work at scale. As Andreas points out, adaptation is an illusion without mitigation of the problem. Thanks to Andreas and people like him that work tirelessly to inform populations while working as activists to change the criminal operating systems of our civilisation and the mafia in suits that are in charge.

I’m a horticulturist Earthworms have been gone in Rome ga…Floyd county…for 3 years and now others are commenting it’s the same where they are. No fly larvae in trash cans for 3 yrs. Very few birds, very few bugs, plants are blooming way out of cycle and vegetable plants stopped growing after 2 nights warmer than days . Adios amigos

Something that is never discussed is the second derivative of CO2 concentration. The historically unprecedented rate of change of CO2 concentration causes adaptation of the atmospheric pattern of flow ( eg, jet stream) that results in extreme weather until an equilibrium is re-established. Constantly changing CO2 concentrations over short periods of time will result in a steady state of extreme weather as the atmosphere will always be seeking a new equilibrium. The more technology used to manage the content of the atmosphere the worse it will be. The natural processes are too complex to be modelled. Solutions to the Navier Stokes equations are almost always chaotic.

The truth. It hurts, especially when you realize how few people see past the b.s.

Only a politician would think these "solutions" are reasonable. Privatize the profits and socialize the costs at its most absurd.

Finally, someone with the ⚾️⚾️ to point the finger at the fossil fuel Shareholders.

oh yeah, geo-engineering will not address (maybe just exacerbate) the agricultural collapse we are experiencing.

"Greed, selfishness and apathy" are the problems mankind faces.

A great pity they co-opted the term 'overshoot' to describe this policy/ideology. There has been debate since the early 80s on 'overshoot, the ecological basis of revolutionary change' (Catton 1980) and that humankind has overshot its ecological boundaries - and continues to do so at an accelerated pace - is exactly our predicament

Part of the problem, according to the maverick economist, Steve Keen, is that almost all economists chose to live in a fantasy world of their own making. In this world only the agricultural part of the economy will be affected by a +6 deg. C amount of temp increase, so the damage to the GDP will be minimal. That is just 3% less that the amount of GDP growth with no temp increase. But, no farming is, no food is, we all starve & die.

I very much appreciate the honesty in this presentation. Also loved the line "one of the many acronyms littering climate discourse". Beautiful. I loved the presentation. It speaks to the discourse that we hear as we face the reality of climate change. The discourse is only going to get much crazier and there will be endless finger-pointing. I equate it to a tornado of all people swirling around yelling and screaming into the void of chaos.

Excellent presentation. I learned a lot from this. It's a great pity that 90% or more of the population thinks we just have to get the recycling sorted into the right bag and we've done our share.

Seeing current energy amounts that Earth takes (~+2Watts/m^2), there is hardly any chance to stay under 2C warming. We are overshooting 2C already. There is no budget left for 2C. And that does not even include aerosols, that adds even more temperature rise to the mix. Hansen et al. paper says that we are currently at 2,55C when all components are calculated in. And that does not include coming tipping points. We could try to come back around 2C, if there is some magical mean to take lots of ghg's from the air. So far these means does not exist. Antarctica sea ice is currently at so low level (2,67 million sq km's missing), that it will gain huge amounts of energy in coming summer. That could disrupt Antarctica's glaciers, like Thwaites, causing rapid sea level rise.

In Finland we haven't had that bad summers. But yet still droughts and too much water in the end of the season to grow good crops... Having green, rotten, bruised and blight potatoes in last month is next by supermarket... No other potatoes sold. Losing 10%, 10%, 30%, ... crops while not having similar extremes like in Mediterranean area has had. Life is getting harder and there could be coming shortages. Our media has even started to prepare people for worse food by claiming that our food varieties have peaked... The downhill has started. Even in the Northern Europe.

Maladaptation will still count towards GDP. It's a win-win!

RCP 8.5 here we come.

Use of trees (and other perennial species) can be viable IF such perennials are used as a multipurpose functional resource as food/fodder/fuel/human & animal habitat and NOT planted solely as pure monoculture stands for use as commercial GHG emission offsets thus occluding and displacing other land uses. It is important to realize that polycultures are significantly MORE productive for food production and MORE efficient at ecological capture of Carbon than monocultures. Monocultures are ONLY more efficient for machines and for the capitalist’s that own them.

Not Only Wind And Solar, you also have Nuclear Power !!

Big oil corporations exist because they have corporate charters issued by the government. One solution, that might regrettably prove necessary, is the draconian solution: simply pull the corporate charters. “Sorry, you can no longer legally conduct business within our jurisdiction.” If, they walk and abandon their infrastructure, the government simply steps in, takes ownership and repurposes it to produce durable Carbon-based construction materials such as the cable for a space elevator, affordable housing, etc. Subsidies could then be transferred to renewable energy providers and Carbon technology startups.

Another thing that is not talked about is the destabilization and possible long term elimination (?) of the mid latitude atmospheric circulation cell. The implications of this possibility are significant. This simplification would result in northerly migration of deserts (at the point of contact between the Hadley and the Polar cells where cold dry air would now be sinking) and precipitation (and accumulation of snowpack due to warm moist air now RISING (rather than cold dry air falling) at the poles giving rise to renewed glaciation. Given the dire consequences, is this the atmospheric circulation pattern that we want to create? If so, keep pumping GHGs into the atmosphere!