How Republicans conquered Florida

1,393,678
0
Published 2023-09-18
Florida was once the iconic swing state. What happened?

Subscribe and turn on notifications đź”” so you don't miss any videos: goo.gl/0bsAjO
Help keep Vox free for everybody: www.vox.com/give-now

In 2022, before he began a campaign for the presidency, Ron DeSantis was reelected governor of Florida in a landslide. This was impressive and surprising because the 2022 elections were disappointing for Republicans almost everywhere else in the US. But DeSantis’s overwhelming victory was doubly impressive and surprising because when he had first been elected, just four years earlier, it was by just a tiny margin.

For a long time, in fact, tiny election margins were the norm in Florida elections. Florida was a “swing state” — it sometimes voted for Democrats, sometimes for Republicans, and was a major prize up for grabs in presidential elections. But by 2022, something had changed: Florida Republicans up and down the ballot won their races by margins similar to DeSantis’s, and no one was calling Florida a swing state anymore.

Florida seems to have undergone a political transformation. So what happened? In this video, we look at three possible explanations.

Chapters:
0:00 What changed?
1:49 Defining the question
2:52 New Floridians
4:10 Latino voters
7:05 Florida Democrats
8:26 The other reasons
10:09 A request

Read “The United States of Florida,” a contributor-supported project from Vox: www.vox.com/culture/23864468/florida-man-invasive-…

We looked at …. a lot of data for this video. Here are the main sources we used:

County-by-county results in Florida elections from 2016-2022 came from the Florida Department of State’s Election Reporting System: results.elections.myflorida.com/

The screenshotted US Census page showing that Miami-Dade is mostly Latino can be found here, under the “data tables” tab: www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/…

Our map showing the “specific origin” of various states’ Latino populations was inspired by the University of Washington’s Great Migrations Project: depts.washington.edu/moving1/map_latinx_migration.…

The data we used for that map came from the US Census via this very helpful tool: data.census.gov/table?q=B03001:+HISPANIC+OR+LATINO…

The chart about Spanish-language ad spending in the 2022 Florida governor’s race came from a post-mortem of the 2022 election by the research firm Equis. You can find it on page 59: weareequis.us/api/docs/qV8T7OpIWxw54fYWr9F0M/d1ecc…

And now for the big red bars. The Florida state party expenditures came from Transparency USA, an organization that tracks state-level campaign finance data. That data for Florida Republicans is here: www.transparencyusa.org/fl/committee/republican-pa…
And Democratic state party expenditures are here: www.transparencyusa.org/fl/committee/florida-democ…

The data on the best-funded state parties is from OpenSecrets, another org that tracks campaign finance data: www.opensecrets.org/political-parties/top-committe…

The chart at the end, which compiles spending from the national Democratic Party, was also based on information from OpenSecrets: www.opensecrets.org/political-parties

And the data on how much the state parties raised came from Florida Department of State’s campaign finance database: dos.elections.myflorida.com/campaign-finance/contr…

The line chart that shows total voter registrations for each party is based on data that Florida’s Division of Elections makes public: dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-…

Finally, the data around voters who moved to a new state and new Florida registrations from 2020-2023 came from the data vendor L2: www.l2datamapping.com/

Vox is an explanatory newsroom on a mission to help everyone understand our weird, wonderful, complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. Part of that mission is keeping our work free. You can help us do that by making a gift: www.vox.com/givenow

Watch our full video catalog: goo.gl/IZONyE
Follow Vox on TikTok: tiktok.com/@voxdotcom
Check out our articles: www.vox.com/
Listen to our podcasts: www.vox.com/podcasts

All Comments (21)
  • @Vox
    This video is part of a larger project at Vox, all about Florida. Vox’s reporters looked into what makes the state tick, from the economics of Disney World to who’s actually been moving to Florida and why. Check it out here: www.vox.com/e/23628509 And if you liked this video and want to learn more, I highly recommend this story by my colleague Nicole Narea - it’s a much more in-depth look at the forces behind Florida’s shift to the right and its growing importance to the national Republican Party: www.vox.com/e/23612938 Thanks for watching! Let us know what other states you think we should look at and why! -Adam
  • @fishconnoisseur
    As a native born Floridian, something funny I’ve seen among Cuban Americans is an irrational hatred of the Democratic Party due to the Democrat, JFK’s failed Bay of Pigs invasion. I think that the Hispanic vote is very important in Florida, and for now it’s firmly republican thanks to the Cuban population.
  • People always mention Cuban immigrants for the reason Florida turned Republican. But they forget the massive influx of baby boomers from across the country moving to Florida for retirement that also added to the right wing shift, since boomers almost entirely vote Republican also. They're also the demographic with the most active voters, which has a drastic effect on local government.
  • @GillianSeed
    Every time a lib said "Latinx" a Florida Hispanic voted Republican and here we are.
  • @user-hz8py7ri4t
    As a no-party, Floridian Cuban, I can say this was really well done. I think it'll bridge a lot of gaps of knowledge between groups.
  • @TimeBucks
    High-quality research and data visualization
  • @koshka02
    Florida is definitely Red. But somehow Arizona and Georgia are now Purple.
  • @kingsfan222
    Kind of stuff I suspected but was really nice to see everything on charts. Was nice to see how small of an influence that new registered voters moving to the state had as well as how the Democrats gave up funding Florida. Very good video.
  • @Xonikz
    I was attending a conservative college in the panhandle of Florida during that election year in 2000. The school Deans, professors, and chapel speakers heavily pushed the idea of registering as a resident in Florida and voting for Bush. There were far mare than 500 kids, myself included, that voted as Florida citizens rather than doing absentee ballots for our home states.
  • @silver6380
    An interesting note about Cubans: They were always a strongly Republican demographic, but in the 2000s they began drifting toward the Democratic Party. In 2016, Cubans voted the most D they ever have. Yet, in 2020 they did a sudden total reversal. Polling on specific issues shows that the reversal extended to more than party - Cubans had been slowly and steadily becoming less and less opposed to ending the Cuba embargo for years, and that reversed too, at the same time and just as dramatically.
  • I am from Miami and there has always been a huge majority of conservative Latinos. Most people here speak Spanish. It is not very Mexican but much more Caribbean with the majority Cuban. But you can find people from every Latin country here. Most people from Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and other countries vote conservative based on their perspectives of leaving their countries and governments, many of which have oppressed the people.
  • @charleswhite7035
    The people that moved to Florida because of the low taxes are now complaining about a lack of infrastructure, high cost of housing and insurance, poor public transit as well as water restrictions. You get what you pay for.
  • @conando025
    What a dystopia. I'm dissatisfied with next to all of our parties in Germany and yet the US has a total of 2. I'd go nuts as well
  • @chad3358
    I'm always surprised and disgusted at how much money American political parties spend on politics and their elections.
  • @beej1300
    One thing not mentioned is the lack of higher level Democratic options for the ticket. When the candidate who won the Governorship in 2006 as a Republican is the best option the Democrats can put forward in 2014 AND 2022 (and loses both times), there is a obvious lack of viable options for the Democratic party.
  • @karlcheney
    What an amazing video. Great research and production quality!
  • @MuffinYoBusiness
    To younger people in Florida, please do not register yourself as independent. Florida is a “closed party state” meaning you can not vote for either Republicans OR Democrats. While I understand most of the complaints of both party’s this is only causing more problems for both in the end. As now, we have a large amount of independents that can’t vote for candidates that’ll have an actual chance in winning.
  • @RickJaeger
    This happens sometimes, and it's always interesting to see it happen. I wasn't alive to see California go blue, but I was for Virginia to go from purple to bluish, and Florida to go from purple to red. The Midwest and Pennsylvania trending red, and Colorado and other western states trending blue. One has to be reminded that history is not just a result, but a process. We're always living through it.
  • @davidbarts6144
    I dealt with the Florida Democrats as a campaign volunteer in 2016. They were comically inept and disorganized. They couldn’t even furnish me with an up-to-date script for the phone calls to voters I was supposed to make! The Republicans have not won Florida; the Democrats have lost it.
  • Awesome reporting! The charts and the research help us understand the breakdown and shift of the voters in Florida. It provides us a model to look at.