Mortgage Rates Will Finally Fall, What Will Happen To Home Prices? | Zelman & Associates
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Published 2024-07-17
Ivy Zelman, Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, and Alan Ratner, Managing Director of Zelman & Associates, discusses the outlook for mortgage rates, demand, homebuilding activity, and home prices.
*This video was recorded on July 10, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Outlook on rates
5:56 - Homebuilding updates
10:33 - Listings rising
11:40 - Sellers’ market
14:10 - Lumber
16:30 - Home price growth
17:10 - Cap rates outlook
18:20 - Cities where home prices are falling
19:55 - New vs. existing home prices
21:47 - Rental market
26:42 - Fertility trends
29:51 - Housing affordability
33:53 - Entry-level homes
35:25 - Household formation
38:10 - Wealth effect
39:53 - Agent fees
40:34 - Markets that could gain value
42:08 - Home insurance
42:41 - Climate change and homebuilding
45:00 - Risk of financial crisis
49:10 - Foreign buyers
*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
#realestate #housingmarket #economy
All Comments (21)
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The idea of investing a significant sum of money may be both thrilling and intimidating. There is potential for considerable wealth increase with the correct strategy. How can one take advantage of compound interest and potentially grow your retirement savings to about $1M over time?
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I guess that chick missed where he said “the average household income” was $75K… she immediately assumed he meant individual income and doubled it for a household totally discrediting her thesis
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Lower rates to % 6.25 won’t entice any one that is on the sidelines to buy a house especially if prices don’t come down significantly. It’s all about monthly payment. People have credit card payments and car payments now and that won’t change their ability to make a when houses are at these levels and interest rates but 1-2% lower. And no one will refinance at6.25% either
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Anecdotally, as a landlord… Even though costs are rising… We are keeping our rent exactly the same and eating increase in property tax and insurance. That is because we noticed that there’s a decreased quality, in terms of financial ability in the rental pool of applicants. If we have a good one, we just want to keep things status quo, rather than look for another good candidate.
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The Case-Schiller index of home prices is at an all-time high. Housing is simply unaffordable for most people. Prices in terms of household income in most of the country are at an extreme we didn't even see in 2007. The best case scenario is that prices could stagnate for a decade. The one backstop for home prices is sky-high rates of immigration.
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I’m sorry, but the gentleman saying that multifamily housing is “inefficient” and “hard to scale”? 🤨 I’m going to need to see some data to back that up.
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I had initially planned to retire at 62, work part-time, and save money, but the impact of high prices on various goods and services has significantly disrupted my retirement plan. I'm worried about whether those who experienced the 2008 financial crisis had it easier than I currently am. The volatility of the stock market is a concern as my income has decreased, and I fear that I won't be able to contribute as much as before, potentially jeopardizing my retirement savings.
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House just sold one week in my neighborhood that should have been around 750 k ask price 1 million sold in one week. I don't know what to say except for the fools are out there buying outside NYC!
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All depends on jobs and income! That trend is going very negative!
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Nobody cares about rates , it's the price which any rate is applied to ...prices are what consumers care about
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I was born in 73. When I was a kid most of my friends lived in single income houses. Now... As Ivy said, most home are two income homes so they can afford this 120k income. What's next families shaking up with one another? Pimping your kids out so you have 3+ incomes so houses are "affordable"????
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Finally, the topic that I was looking for for the last couple months. Could you please make a series of what will happen to real estate during market crash economy collapse Civil War third war, etc. I love your content. Keep it please.❤
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Very informative low to no key information !! Houston,Tx
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When I hear someone spend that much time on climate change they just lose all their credibility.
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Awesome report! I expect nothing less from the Linmeister.
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If you can afford to rebuild your house at least 5x over then self insurance is ok imo.
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Spot on with the climate change comment. 100% agree that there will be more demand for cooler and non-hurricane prone areas in the USA. I would NEVER buy property in Florida, coastal Texas, most of the deep southwest US in the desert-like areas.
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Great info thank you
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"Deceleration in home prices." No sh*t Sherlock.
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So when you have massive stimulus and then you also have credit cards delinquencies and balances going up in this time frame you have to imagine the amount of velocity of the money being spent because of massive inflation that is not reported. When you have an inflation report you don't take things out of it to make it look better that's not how people live. People live by using daily things that they take out of the CPI
